Scientific Integrity Institute

University of California

April 23, 2020 Daily Signal Enstrom OpEd “Flawed Models Show Why COVID-19 Policies Must Consider Total Mortality”

The “model” told us 2.2 million Americans would die.  That was a big enough number to close society, create 26 million unemployed, break families and cause food shortages.  Washington has spent $6 trillion already and Pelosi and friends want more, including one trillion to bail out corrupt and mismanaged States like California, Illinois and New York.  All of this, based on models that have proven to be totally inaccurate.

“However, note that 71% of the deaths have occurred in six high-risk states (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, and Michigan) with 17% of U.S. residents and a death rate of 624 per million.

Ten percent have occurred in five medium-risk states (Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland, and Indiana) and the District of Columbia with 12% of U.S. residents and a death rate of 124 per million, and 19% have occurred in the remaining 39 low-risk states with 71% of U.S. residents and a death rate of 40 per million.

It remains to be determined, however, whether these COVID-19 deaths have actually increased the total U.S. deaths this year. The best data on both COVID-19 deaths and total deaths in the U.S. come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention‘s National Center for Health Statistics. 

To read the entire column, check The Daily Signal or California Political Review.

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